G20’s incapability to handle agenda-wrecking territorial disputes will result in its demise

On the floor stage, this yr’s G20 gave the impression to be successful. However beneath the PR spins and the pleasant handshakes, the G20 is extra fractious than ever. 

And its incapability to handle agenda-wrecking disputes will in the end result in the bloc’s irrelevance and demise.

In spite of everything, the world is dealing with a slew of competing emergencies: the escalating local weather disaster, numerous humanitarian disasters, the seemingly countless Ukraine-Russia battle, and the continued financial fallout from COVID-19 – all which require the diplomatic clout of the G20 to mitigate.

However sadly, this yr’s G20 in India’s capital regarded extra insipid than ever earlier than, drastically missing a transformative edge and even leaving the bloc on the sting of a diplomatic chilly battle.

And it’s not solely as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created a transparent fault line all through the bloc, or as a result of commitments on transformative local weather motion have been discovered wanting, with no point out of the vital net-zero objective of phasing out oil and fuel.

It’s as a result of the G20 is failing to handle the cataclysmic geopolitical divides, particularly the mounting territorial disputes, which can be ripping aside the material of worldwide collaboration.

If G20 cannot resolve geopolitical points, who can?

Already within the run-up to this yr’s summit, China threatened to derail President Narendra Modi’s large worldwide second by releasing its 2023 normal map which confirmed components of Russia and India, in addition to the whole lot of the South China Sea, as Chinese language territory.

China’s expansionist tendencies are nothing new however focusing on nuclear-armed India on the eve of its large G20 second, which resulted within the obtrusive absence of Chinese language Premier Xi Jinping, ought to be a pink flag for the worldwide group.

See, Modi might have claimed that “the G20 isn’t the place to resolve geopolitical points.” However G20 members account for over 70% of world GDP, half of the world’s inhabitants, and comprise the highest 5 largest CO2 emitters. 

If this group of nations, that come collectively yearly, can’t resolve geopolitical points and territorial disputes, then who can?

That is no extra obvious than within the South China Sea the place China’s hostile aggression is threatening regional stability and financial safety.

China’s position in rising tensions

The area is likely one of the world’s busiest transport lanes residence to billions of euros’ value of oil and pure fuel. 

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However for many years China has been going to growing lengths to guard its farcical “nine-dash-line declare” to the whole lot of the South China Sea – which it nonetheless touts although it was rejected by an arbitration court docket in 2016.

Through the years, China’s army presence and belligerence within the area have skyrocketed. 

In current months, the nation has been accused of constructing army bases on disputed islands and even harassing fishing and coast guard vessels of neighbouring international locations. And the rising tensions may simply flip lethal. 

For instance, in 1974 and 1988, China and Vietnam engaged in lethal clashes over disputed territory within the South China Sea.

It is maybe no coincidence that US President Joe Biden travelled to Vietnam after the G20 summit to announce the signing of the “Complete Strategic Partnership” – a historic deal that reinforces relations between the 2 former bitter enemies. 

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In spite of everything, with out the assist of ASEAN nations, it will likely be unattainable to curtail China’s staunch maintain on the area.

The more and more unusual case of the Sultanate of Sulu

However Biden’s transfer is barely the tip of the iceberg, and different G20 members should forge new partnerships to assist ASEAN not solely emerge from China’s financial shadow however come collectively in solidarity towards China’s divisive methods. 

Which means that world leaders should play a extra outstanding position in mediating longstanding disputes that are hindering unity within the South China Sea.

For instance, relations between Malaysia and The Philippines have been strained following the results of a controversial arbitration case involving the defunct Sultanate of Sulu. 

The Sulu heirs have been awarded $15 billion (€14bn) after Malaysia allegedly stopped paying a colonial-era land lease charge to the Sulu after militants tied to the Sultanate clashed with Malaysian safety forces in Sabah in 2013.

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The award was ultimately annulled – and even the Spanish legal professional concerned faces felony expenses again residence – however the case highlights how territorial disputes, left unresolved for many years, are undermining very important partnerships throughout instances of elevated regional rigidity.

G20 has to cease hesitating if it needs to outlive

The G20 has no alternative. If it needs to remain related and play an important position in offering the options humanity wants for our very survival, then it should rethink its geopolitical squeamishness and supply a counterweight to China’s imperialist agenda.

This implies diplomatic partnerships shouldn’t occur in again rooms after the G20 however on stage in entrance of the world. 

It additionally signifies that G20 international locations ought to translate their phrases into motion by solidifying long-anticipated financial commerce agreements and army alliances which have remained unsure for years.

In spite of everything, between the G20 members, there’s a wealth of expertise to attract upon that would supply a powerful platform for constructive diplomacy. 

Simply contemplate Biden’s new trilateral settlement with Japan and South Korea, or how the US mediated talks between bitter neighbours Israel and Lebanon to hash out a profitable maritime settlement that navigated complicated claims to undersea fuel fields.

In the end, if G20 members can’t discover methods to mitigate mounting territorial disputes then not solely will they fail to deal with the globe’s largest challenges, however their hesitancy will even ultimately result in its, and maybe our world’s, demise.

Saman Rizwan is a UK-based analyst on South Asian affairs. As a journalist and commentator, she often writes for publications together with South China Morning Publish, The Diplomat, The Nation, Forbes, and Newsweek.

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